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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to NO 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model