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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 35

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-20-J.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at NO 1.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.92 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model