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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 35 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-C.Hogan to CAR 26 for -1 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP