Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 2 at the 27
Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 42
What Actually Happened
(8:38) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 80-I.Thomas.
The Three Options
GO
+1.83 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.31 EP
- 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP
KICK
+1.12 EP
- 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 19% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT
-0.27 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
