Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 42 – Carolina Panthers 10

(6:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-C.Hogan to CAR 16 for 5 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.57 EP
54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model