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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 42

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 80-I.Thomas pushed ob at NO 34 for 12 yards (52-C.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model