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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.12 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP