Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 14

(15:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to NO 15 for 4 yards (43-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model