4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to NYJ 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.89 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP