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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 65

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to BUF 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model