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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model