Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 77

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

(9:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model