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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 45

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-D.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP