Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

(7:11) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.03 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model