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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to BUF 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 4 yards (50-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model