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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 72

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model