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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NYG 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-S.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model