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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 37

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end ran ob at PHI 20 for 17 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.61 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model