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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NYG 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-G.Tate to NYG 19 for 8 yards (50-D.Riley; 57-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.96 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model