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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 38

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert [53-O.Ximines].

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model