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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NYG 14, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-G.Tate ran ob at NYG 31 for 17 yards (47-N.Gerry).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.28 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP