Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 83

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to PHI 34, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward to PHI 40 for 6 yards (31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on PHI-57-T.Edwards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.20 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model