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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:57) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 19 for 11 yards (31-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.12 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP