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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(5:23) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.91 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model