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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:57) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to PIT 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 19 for 13 yards (31-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model