Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 16

(2:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to BAL 31, Center-57-K.Canaday. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 37 for 6 yards (41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.84 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model