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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.29 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model