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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to PIT 19, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.21 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model