Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 5, and recovers at PIT 3. 4-J.Berry to PIT 3 for no gain (49-C.Board). FUMBLES (49-C.Board), RECOVERED by BAL-28-J.Richards at PIT -3. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.20 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.24 EP