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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP