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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 18

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 88-H.Hentges (54-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model