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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 13

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(13:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Injury update: Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence has a rib injury, his return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model