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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 83

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DAL 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-T.Austin to DAL 30 for -1 yards (84-D.Kidsy).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model