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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to WAS 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 15-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model