Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Washington Commanders 3

(8:13) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 18 yards to DAL 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-23-D.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.23 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model