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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 24

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(11:58) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model