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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to WAS 25 for 2 yards (46-M.Smith). DAL-21-E.Elliott was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. WAS-46-M.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.58 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model