4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(4:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.42 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model