Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 73

Washington Commanders 16 – Dallas Cowboys 44

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 61 yards to DAL 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 12 for no gain (84-D.Kidsy). PENALTY on DAL-41-R.Armstrong, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model