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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 70

Washington Commanders 16 – Dallas Cowboys 47

What Actually Happened

(:36) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -2.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model