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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.99 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP