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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.26 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model