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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 13

Houston Texans 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.90 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP