4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 69

Houston Texans 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-J.Reid. 20-J.Reid right end to HOU 33 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 27, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model