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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 33

Houston Texans 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.31 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model