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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 68

Houston Texans 31 – Kansas City Chiefs 51

What Actually Happened

(7:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 25-D.Johnson pushed ob at HOU 38 for 6 yards (56-B.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model