Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 51 – Houston Texans 31

(3:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-B.Pringle.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.91 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model