4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 8

Houston Texans 31 – Kansas City Chiefs 51

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at KC 25 for -17 yards (55-F.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.60 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 8, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP