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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to HOU 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.42 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP