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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 56

Houston Texans 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-35-K.Crossen at KC 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.25 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model